By: M Adil Khan
Last week, the UN secretary-general António Guterres said that the Ukraine war is “unwinnable” and this is true but sadly, there seems to be no letup in the war, not yet.
Russia’s relentless bombing has reduced Ukraine into a pile of rubbles and into a non-functioning state.
On the other hand, Russia’s initial expectations that Ukraine would be cowed by the show of its military might not seem to have worked. Thanks to US/NATO’s generous arming of the Ukrainian resistance forces and stiff resistance from the Ukrainians, Russia’s accomplishments in the battlefield have been far less than what they hoped for.
Furthermore, harsh EU/US sanctions have significantly reduced Russia’s capacity to sustain the war, and should this war prolong, Putin’s own survival may be in question though it is also true that Russia’s capacity to continue the war hugely outmatches Ukraine’s capacity – notwithstanding generous NATO arms supply – to sustain the resistance.
Either way, there is no alternative to cessation of violence and promotion of lasting peace and the good news is that there are signs that both sides are exhausted and are ready to talk[1].
The Ukraine war has also revealed several interesting behaviours and developments that are worth noting, as these are important for the future of peace.
It seems the media, especially the media in the West, played a sinister role in hyping the war!
From the onset of this war, the media especially those in the US and UK have been filling relentlessly the TV screens and print pages with unsubstantiated fake news and distorted analyses that made the atmosphere so toxic that these alarmed the Pentagon that it had to take urgent steps to warn Biden Administration of the danger of media’s “unrelenting” and “reckless” anti-Russia and anti-Putin tirade that threatened to push US/NATO into a war with Russia and by extension, plunge the world into the third world war.[2]
The Ukraine war has also revealed several noticeable shifts that are key contextualisation of the emerging world order and international mood.
For example, at the March 2, 2022 UN General Assembly Special Session on Ukraine, while NATO/US and their allies voted ‘Yes’ and condemned Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and endorsed the Ukraine Resolution, several major Asian (China, India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Afghanistan, Iraq, Iran for example), African (Kenya, Nigeria etc.) and Latin American (Venezuela, Nicaragua etc.) countries who are either current and/or recent victims of West’s illegal wars and sufferers of their punitive actions have been less enthusiastic. These countries voted either ‘No’ or ‘Abstained’, conveying their mixed feelings towards West’s outrage at Russia, as “hypocritical” and West’s “…recourse to the UN, a matter of expedience not principle.”[3]
Furthermore, through their lukewarm responses to the UN Resolution these No/Abstained voting countries may have also delivered another important message, something that Nelson Mandela once alluded to, which is that “Why should America’s enemy be my enemy?”
These shifts indicate that the post WWII Anglo/Saxon Hegemonic world order is unravelling, and the world is transiting from a unipolar to a multipolar world where there are now multiple sub-systems that countries can tap on and benefit from. Thus, it is apparent that the US/NATO sanctions on Russia proving to be lot less potent than these once used to be.
In addition, it is also evident that in a globalized market-economic system, sanction-induced punitive actions that contribute to market disruptions eventually affect everyone, implying that in an economically integrated world sanctions are somewhat of a lose-lose tool.
These are interesting lessons in international relations that reveal that people are tired of taking sides; that in the emerging multipolar world people have choices; and that people care less the Anglo-Saxon supremacist bullying; and finally, that market disruptions harm all.
These developments are also signs that time is ripe to abandon the old exceptionalism and seek newer and fairer ways to organize the world.
Thus, coming back Ukraine, it is important that search for an enduring peace in Ukraine must give due attention to these new developments for an enduring peace in the world. However, given the explosive nature of the current situation and the human sufferings, soon we find an amicable solution and halt violence in Ukraine better it is. The question is, how?
Among other things, an amicable settlement of the Ukraine crisis have to consider two interconnecting factors – firstly and more broadly the terms that satisfy both the parties and secondly, NATO/US – Ukraine’s external guardians and their arms suppliers – negotiating parameters for Ukraine and finally, and this is key, how NATO/US treats Russia and engage Putin.
Given Europe’s/US’ alleged dismal track record in honouring promises, in this case, promise of NATO’s eastward which has since been flouted, Russia especially Mr. Putin does not trust neither Europe nor US.
Furthermore, Russians also believe and with justification that instead treating Russia as an ‘equal partner’ in international affairs, they ignored and sidelined Russia and often treated Russia with disdain and at times, patronisingly. Over the years such disparaging behaviour has deepened trust deficits and hurt Russia’s pride, fomenting nationalism that produced ultra-nationalist and ultra-assertive leaders such as Putin.
Ukraine peace talks must factor these in. Europe must do its utmost to build trust with Russia and treat Russia with respect and more importantly, and regardless of how much they hate Putin, engage the Russian leader with dignity, deserving of a head of state and make sure to avoid guffaws such as the one made – consciously or otherwise- by the President Biden where in a speech in Poland a week or so ago he departed at the end from his pre-prepared script and dropped this unscripted bombshell that “For God’s sake…this man [Putin] cannot remain in power.” This was enough to finish all prospects of peace negotiations.
Thankfully, White House officials were quick to “…assure the world that Biden didn’t mean what he said” and that “….we do not have a strategy of regime change in Russia or anywhere else, for that matter.”[4]
Make no mistake that treating Russia and Putin disrespectfully and disparagingly is a no go. Peace negotiations with Russia must address Russia’s concerns sensitively and Russia’s leader Putin, treated with dignity and diligence.
Mr. Zelensky’s recent statement that he is willing to “compromise” meaning that he is ready to accommodate Russia’s concerns in a peace deal is a welcome sign[5] and hope that his external backers, NATO/US, pay heed to Zelensky’s flexible approach.
Sometimes, out of a gloom, comes a glimmer of hope. In some way, Ukraine war may have helped us to see things clearer to work for a better world – hopefully!
For example, the Ukraine war that has given the Europeans the rare opportunity to experience firsthand, an illegal war on their own soil, a war that has been executed by one of their own and a war that has had horrific consequences on the people, this time on one of their own may have sensitized them to realize that all illegal wars, past and present are bad and that these wars have had no winners except those who promote these wars but never physically join the fight these wars.
Thus, time for the world and most importantly, the Europeans who always seem to get hooked into these illegal wars, to gaze beyond Ukraine to the issue of illegal wars and agree on provisions that prevent such wars.
It is rather fortuitous that the Ukraine peace talks are taking place in Istanbul, Turkey where the Ottoman Sultans -Turkish kings – would often remind that “Beyond the fight, lies the greater fight — the struggle to build an enduring peace.”[6]
Istanbul peace talks have indeed offered the unique opportunity to go beyond Ukraine and fight the “greater fight” and suggest policies and institutional arrangements that prevent illegal wars and promote a rule-based global governance architecture that ensures “enduring peace.”(CounterCurrents.org)
M. Adil Khan is a former senior policy manager of the United Nations
