A powerful Western Disturbance is set to impact Jammu and Kashmir, with weather confidence now extremely high and the system expected to be stronger than initially projected.
Weather conditions will begin changing from this afternoon, with the higher reaches of North Kashmir seeing the first impact. By nightfall, most parts of Jammu and Kashmir are likely to come under the influence of the system.
There is a very high likelihood of widespread snowfall across the Kashmir plains, along with several areas of the Jammu region including Poonch, Doda, Kishtwar, Ramban and Kathua. Although the disturbance is expected to weaken within 24 hours, snowfall during this period could be intense due to unusually high moisture levels.
The peak impact is forecast from tonight through late tomorrow afternoon, while light rain or snowfall may continue in some areas until the morning of January 24.
Meteorologists say the system will mark a major shift in atmospheric conditions, triggering a fresh cold wave. Prolonged and severe winter conditions are expected to persist across the region for the remainder of the month.
Snow accumulation will depend largely on snow density. Under dry snow conditions, snowfall in the plains could range from around four inches to as much as two feet, with higher accumulations likely near the Pir Panjal range, particularly in Shopian district. In case of wet snow, accumulations may remain between three inches and one-and-a-half feet. Higher reaches are expected to receive between two and four feet of fresh snowfall.
Meanwhile, Jammu plains are likely to experience moderate to heavy rainfall, accompanied by strong gusty winds in some areas.
Authorities have warned of possible travel disruptions on January 23, as flights, train services and road connectivity may be affected due to adverse weather conditions.
