by Syed Suhail Geelani
This summer has felt different. The season began with prolonged heat, rising temperatures, drying landscapes, and visible signs of moisture stress across many areas. Before these conditions could settle into a typical summer pattern, the weather shifted abruptly. Intense rainfall followed, leading to rapid changes in river discharge, soil erosion, and landslides across parts of the northwestern Himalaya. To many, it appeared to be an unexpected turn of the season. Scientific observations suggest that such transitions are becoming increasingly frequent in many parts of the world. They reflect the combined influence of atmospheric processes, geological conditions, and anthropogenic changes that are altering the behaviour of regional climate systems.
The atmosphere responds directly to changes in temperature and moisture. The Clausius-Clapeyron relation explains that for every one-degree Celsius increase in air temperature, the atmosphere can hold approximately seven per cent more water vapour. During periods of extreme heat, evaporation increases from oceans, rivers, lakes, reservoirs, and land surfaces, enriching the atmosphere with moisture. When favourable atmospheric conditions develop, including moisture convergence and low-pressure systems, this accumulated moisture can be released as intense rainfall.
Large-scale atmospheric circulation also plays an important role. Variations in jet stream behaviour and atmospheric blocking patterns can influence the persistence and movement of weather systems. These conditions may allow periods of prolonged heat or persistent rainfall to remain over the same region for longer than usual, contributing to greater seasonal variability.
Atmospheric processes determine how weather develops, but geological conditions largely determine how the land responds.
Prolonged dry conditions reduce the infiltration capacity of soils. In some soils, particularly those rich in organic matter, temporary water repellency, known as soil hydrophobicity, may develop. In many other soils, repeated drying leads to surface sealing and crust formation, both of which restrict the downward movement of water.
When intense rainfall occurs over such surfaces, a larger proportion of water becomes overland flow rather than infiltrating into the ground. This accelerates soil erosion, increases sediment transport, and causes rivers and streams to respond more rapidly to heavy rainfall.
Across the northwestern Himalaya, geological conditions further influence this response. Much of the terrain is characterised by weathered rocks, fractured bedrock, steep slopes, and unconsolidated slope deposits. During prolonged rainfall, water infiltrates these materials and increases pore water pressure, reducing their shear strength and making slopes more susceptible to landslides and slope failures. These are well documented geological responses to intense rainfall in mountainous environments.
Natural processes explain how these weather fluctuations occur. Human activities have increasingly amplified both their intensity and their consequences.
The continued rise in greenhouse gas concentrations has warmed the atmosphere, increasing its capacity to retain moisture and creating conditions that favour more intense rainfall under suitable atmospheric conditions.
At the same time, deforestation has reduced vegetation cover that stabilises slopes, protects soil, and regulates the movement of water. The resulting increase in erosion adds more sediment to rivers and gradually alters natural drainage systems.
Rapid urbanisation has also transformed the behaviour of the landscape. The replacement of permeable ground with concrete and asphalt reduces infiltration, increases surface runoff, and places greater pressure on drainage networks. Encroachment upon natural floodplains and drainage channels further limits the landscape’s ability to accommodate periods of intense rainfall.
The weather experienced this summer should not be viewed as an isolated seasonal event. It reflects the interaction of atmospheric dynamics, geological processes, and anthropogenic changes that are gradually reshaping the way landscapes respond to climate.
Reducing the impacts of future weather extremes requires a scientific approach to land and environmental management. Protecting forests, conserving wetlands, restoring natural drainage channels, limiting construction on geologically vulnerable slopes, and integrating geological assessments into development planning can improve the resilience of both natural landscapes and human settlements. Alongside these measures, reducing greenhouse gas emissions remains essential to limiting further changes in the climate system.
The changing character of this season reminds us that weather is no longer changing only in intensity. It is also changing in rhythm. Understanding why that rhythm is shifting is just as important as responding to its consequences.
Author holds M.Sc. in Applied Geology from University of Kashmir. He can be mailed at suhailsyed142@gmail.com
