by: Naveed Qazi
Trump’s threats to make Canada a 51st state have fundamentally altered Canadian vote priorities. Getting swayed by nationalism, Canadians now have pushed away all of other issues, notes Luc Turgeon, a political science professor at the University of Ottawa.
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At the same time, Canadians still want effective, honest leaders the top. They might make a complete shift towards Conservatives or a change of leadership amongst the Liberals can also be on the cards.
The centre-right party led by Pierre Poilievre, has been effectual in its messaging on issues that have occupied the Canadian psyche for the last few years: the rising cost of living, housing unaffordability, crime and a strained healthcare system. Poilievre successfully tied these societal problems to what he labelled Trudeau’s ‘disastrous’ policies, and promised a return to ‘common sense politics.’
According to Toronto based Innovative Research Group, Trudeau’s resignation, and Trump’s threats to Canada’s economic security and even its sovereignty, the overall messaging has become less palatable. The polling of the research group suggests the majority of the country is now most afraid of Trump’s presidency and the impact it will have on Canada.
Trudeau has been taking the threat seriously. He told reporters that Trump’s stated reason for the US tariffs, the flow of fentanyl across the border, was bogus and unjustified.
Ever since Trump’s tariff plans, Conservatives are still ahead in polls. It is just that Liberals are rising in popularity currently, and are not far behind.
The Conservatives have also shifted away from their ‘Canada is Broken’ slogan, which many tainted as ‘anti-patriotic’. They then changed their slogan to ‘Canada First’.
One thing remains for sure. Canada will get more in more into a political uncertainty in times to come. It is because there will be job losses due to tariffs and economy can also get into a recession.
Conservatives, mainly through their frontrunner, Poilievre, have also taken a dig at Liberal party front runner Mark Carney, who they believe is not working for the interests of Canadians. They have questioned whether he had a role in moving the headquarters of Brookfield Asset Management – a Canadian investment company – from Toronto to New York when he served as its chair.
After nearly ten years of Liberal rule, an intensifying cost of living crisis had soured public support for Justin Trudeau and his shop-worn government.
Carbon tax issue has also come to the fore. Hailed as a global model of progressive environmental policy, Canada’s carbon tax has reduced emissions and put money in the pockets of Canadians. The levy, endorsed by conservative and progressive economists, has survived multiple federal elections and a supreme court challenge. But this time, a persistent cost-of-living crisis and a tough, callous Conservative leader running on a populist message has thrust the country’s carbon tax once more into the spotlight, calling into question whether it will survive another national vote.
In 2018, Trudeau announced plans for the ‘pan-Canadian climate framework,’ modelled after British Columbia’s pioneering carbon tax. Notably, the tax levy is revenue neutral: the government doesn’t keep any money. Instead, it remits all of it back to taxpayers in the form a quarterly rebate. Any increase in costs from a tax on fuel is offset by a rebate of roughly equal value. This was positively received by the Canadian masses.
Economists, political scientists, and the country’s parliamentary budget officer have found low-income households receive more from the rebate than they pay in additional costs. But the Conservatives, with a significant lead in the polls, are keen to capture increasing frustration with the current government and transform a federal vote into a referendum on Trudeau’s marquee climate policy. Their campaign message, on billboards and T-shirts, has been simple: ‘axe the tax’. They argue that tax burdens Canadians at a time when rents, groceries and transportation costs have all surged.
Kathryn Harrison, a political scientist at the University of British Columbia, calls this move peddled for political benefit.
For Canada’s environment minister, Steven Guilbeault, the divisive debate represents a crises situation for the country in addressing the effects of the climate crisis.
Given Canada’s heavy dependence on American trade, it’s not surprising that the tariffs have dominated political discourse there. Nevertheless, since November 2024, Canada has invested heavily in new border security and other initiatives to try to appease the US president while preparing counter tariffs in response.
Liberal leader John Turner’s 1988 words have now also acquired an extra force because Trump’s economic policies are inhabiting in what he claims to be his larger political goal: the annexation of Canada. As with all things Trump, it is impossible to make out whether this is a serious intent or a bargaining tactic. Regardless, Canada feels at the economic mercy of the United States and worries that a loss of political independence with it might follow.
Naveed Qazi is an author of nine books, and can be mailed for feedback at naveedqazi@live.com
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